martes, 30 de octubre de 2012

Estadística muy interesante sobre sementales y su aptitud a las condiciones de la pista



Esta página web http://www.drawbias.com/sirestats2.html de estadísticas inglesa nos trae un intersante estudio de la aptitud de los hijos de los principales sementales al estado de la pista:

Heavy= Muy pesada
Soft= Pesada
Good to Soft= Buena tirando a blanda
Good= Buena
Good to Firm= Buena tirando a rápida
Firm= Pista muy rápida

Sires Going Preferences

You often here commentators say things like, "He's by Sadlers Wells and they prefer a bit of cut in the ground." But a lot of these views are based on third hand opinions, or the performance of one high profile horse from a particular stallion and are more harm than good.

Below we attempt to give you the actual facts, as to what the going preferences are of particular stallions progeny. See below for detailed instructions but basically the Going Ratio column is the key one. Red indicates a preference for soft ground, Blue for good or better. The higher the number the more pronounced

Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Acclamation
14%
9%
11%
8%
12%
8%
1.09
10%
11%
Anabaa
9%
11%
9%
11%
10%
15%
1.12
12%
13%
Alhaarth
18%
11%
8%
9%
8%
9%
1.28
9%
10%
Aussie Rules
8%
14%
10%
6%
14%
0%
1.19
6%
9%
Avonbridge
18%
11%
8%
8%
7%
13%
1.24
12%
8%
Bahamian Bounty
8%
9%
11%
9%
10%
10%
1.02
10%
8%
Barathea
7%
9%
11%
9%
10%
10%
1.03
13%
7%
Beat Hollow
14%
14%
11%
11%
14%
11%
1.01
11%
7%
Bertolini
17%
7%
7%
8%
8%
13%
1.09
12%
10%
Bold Edge
0%
7%
5%
8%
9%
3%
1.38
13%
10%
Cadeaux Generoux
12%
13%
11%
12%
11%
9%
1.05
8%
12%
Cape Cross
6%
9%
9%
11%
15%
13%
1.57
10%
13%
Captain Rio
13%
14%
8%
4%
5%
10%
2.27
17%
5%
Choisir
13%
9%
6%
14%
14%
0%
1.63
8%
12%
Compton Place
11%
8%
8%
8%
9%
8%
1.07
5%
10%
Dalakhani
12%
18%
18%
18%
28%
25%
1.36
25%
16%
Danehill
13%
13%
16%
15%
14%
17%
1.04
13%
13%
Danehill Dancer
17%
13%
11%
11%
11%
17%
1.14
5%
11%
Danetime
12%
9%
7%
9%
9%
7%
1.04
7%
13%
Dansili
7%
10%
9%
13%
12%
15%
1.35
20%
14%
Daylami
4%
9%
11%
8%
12%
18%
1.12
12%
13%
Diktat
9%
9%
8%
8%
6%
10%
1.22
14%
7%
Dr. Fong
8%
10%
11%
8%
10%
7%
1.13
17%
10%
Dubai Destination
21%
13%
13%
6%
10%
25%
1.48
30%
16%
Dubawi
56%
12%
13%
14%
10%
20%
1.00
37%
23%
Dynaformer
4%
9%
18%
15%
19%
0%
1.30
31%
13%
Efisio
10%
10%
11%
10%
8%
10%
1.15
14%
11%
Exceed and Excel
13%
4%
7%
13%
12%
24%
2.01
20%
18%
Fantastic Light
8%
9%
9%
8%
10%
9%
1.01
21%
12%
Fasilyav
8%
8%
7%
7%
9%
10%
1.14
19%
10%
Galileo
15%
15%
16%
15%
16%
20%
1.04
15%
15%
Giants Causeway
14%
9%
7%
14%
14%
19%
1.60
24%
10%
Gone West
6%
13%
9%
4%
13%
14%
1.07
19%
8%
Green Desert
8%
8%
9%
11%
14%
13%
1.49
7%
15%
Haafhd
0%
3%
16%
11%
10%
10%
1.14
16%
17%
Halling
11%
11%
13%
13%
12%
12%
1.02
17%
13%
Hawk Wing
6%
14%
8%
3%
6%
7%
2.01
14%
7%
Hernando
15%
11%
12%
10%
15%
12%
1.00
17%
10%
High Chaparal
16%
12%
8%
10%
10%
13%
1.15
14%
11%
Holy Roman Emperor
9%
11%
10%
13%
14%
33%
1.33
11%
18%
Iffraaj
10%
5%
15%
12%
14%
0%
1.25
16%
9%
Inchinor
8%
10%
12%
10%
10%
9%
1.09
5%
7%
Indian Ridge
12%
11%
8%
12%
10%
13%
1.11
11%
11%
Intikhab
7%
20%
17%
8%
13%
12%
1.50
9%
14%
Invincible Spirit
11%
8%
13%
11%
12%
22%
1.19
14%
10%
Ishiguru
15%
8%
13%
8%
11%
9%
1.12
6%
8%
Johannesburg
6%
9%
7%
13%
9%
9%
1.35
16%
9%
Key of Luck
6%
6%
8%
7%
8%
5%
1.08
17%
9%
Kheleyf
9%
3%
9%
8%
9%
11%
1.38
11%
7%
King Mambo
15%
14%
11%
14%
18%
28%
1.37
17%
13%
Kings Best
11%
13%
12%
10%
10%
10%
1.23
10%
13%
Kodiac
0%
9%
11%
10%
14%
0%
1.31
10%
12%
Komaite
6%
7%
8%
6%
7%
8%
1.08
10%
9%
Kylacchy
16%
12%
9%
9%
10%
11%
1.15
7%
9%
Lomitas
7%
8%
8%
10%
14%
28%
1.74
0%
10%
Mark of Esteem
14%
9%
11%
8%
9%
11%
1.17
11%
11%
Marju
6%
9%
11%
10%
10%
11%
1.09
16%
11%
Medicean
13%
15%
11%
9%
13%
21%
1.09
22%
11%
Monsieur Bond
10%
6%
13%
9%
10%
8%
1.02
13%
5%
Montjeu
18%
13%
11%
13%
14%
15%
1.06
18%
11%
Motivator
0%
13%
9%
12%
15%
40%
1.36
0%
11%
Mujadil
6%
9%
6%
6%
10%
16%
1.19
7%
8%
Mr Greeley
8%
8%
11%
8%
10%
8%
1.02
9%
12%
Namid
5%
9%
8%
8%
10%
14%
1.16
13%
8%
Noverre
2%
6%
17%
10%
12%
14%
1.16
18%
8%
Oasis Dream
11%
11%
12%
13%
15%
11%
1.17
15%
16%
Observatory
7%
11%
7%
12%
10%
5%
1.19
0%
7%
One Cool Cat
12%
9%
9%
9%
11%
9%
1.08
16%
9%
Oratorio
11%
8%
7%
10%
8%
7%
1.08
24%
13%
Orpen
14%
9%
8%
8%
9%
9%
1.15
14%
9%
Piccolo
9%
7%
6%
6%
7%
12%
1.09
11%
10%
Pivotal
19%
15%
14%
13%
14%
16%
1.12
12%
15%
Rainbow Quest
10%
10%
10%
11%
13%
17%
1.25
21%
12%
Red Ransom
0%
8%
10%
12%
11%
16%
1.55
14%
17%
Refuse to Bend
9%
11%
8%
9%
8%
12%
1.18
23%
8%
Rock of Gibraltor
15%
10%
13%
14%
10%
10%
1.05
13%
12%
Royal Applause
7%
10%
10%
8%
10%
10%
1.05
10%
9%
Sadlers Wells
13%
15%
16%
14%
14%
20%
1.02
10%
10%
Sakhee
14%
11%
14%
18%
14%
14%
1.28
17%
11%
Selkirk
6%
13%
11%
13%
12%
14%
1.13
11%
9%
Shamardal
22%
16%
20%
13%
13%
14%
1.34
29%
20%
Sinndar
9%
6%
11%
9%
14%
32%
1.57
0%
8%
Singspiel
6%
8%
6%
12%
14%
26%
2.10
16%
14%
Street Cry
0%
3%
9%
7%
13%
11%
1.96
27%
9%
Tagula
6%
6%
8%
9%
11%
5%
1.39
10%
11%
Tiger Hill
13%
15%
10%
7%
11%
17%
1.54
14%
11%
Verglas
8%
8%
10%
8%
4%
0%
1.33
29%
5%
War Chant
33%
9%
7%
15%
16%
8%
1.50
33%
13%
Wolfhound
5%
2%
3%
7%
6%
8%
2.22
9%
4%
Zamindar
9%
10%
10%
10%
7%
15%
1.11
2%
9%



The Going Ratio column is calculated by comparing the number of winners on good to soft or worse ground, with the number of winners on good and firmer ground. Red indicates a preference for soft ground, Blue for good or better

A going ratio of 1 would indicate that a sires progeny have absolutly no preference with regard to going. Sadlers Wells at 1.02 is a good example of this. The higher the number the greater the preference. So a ratio of 2 which was blue would indicate that, that particular sire has twice as many winners percentage wise on good ground as it does on soft.

The Fibresand and Polytrack columns on the far right indicate the percentage of winners a particular stallion has had on either of these surfaces.

These stats have now been recalculated and are correct up to January 2012, and unlike the draw bias stats will not be updated throughout the season as the overall trends should not change.
 
 
Top 5 Fast Ground Sires
 
Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Wolfhound
5%
2%
3%
7%
6%
8%
2.22
9%
4%
Singspiel
6%
8%
6%
12%
14%
26%
2.10
16%
14%
Exceed and Excel
13%
4%
7%
13%
12%
24%
2.01
20%
18%
Street Cry
0%
3%
9%
7%
13%
11%
1.96
27%
9%
Lomitas
7%
8%
8%
10%
14%
28%
1.74
0%
10%
 
As you would expect a lot of US pedigrees on show for the horses which prefer rattling fast ground.
 
Top 5 Soft Ground Sires
 
Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Captain Rio
13%
14%
8%
4%
5%
10%
2.27
17%
5%
Hawk Wing
6%
14%
8%
3%
6%
7%
2.01
14%
7%
Intikhab
7%
20%
17%
8%
13%
12%
1.50
9%
14%
Dubai Destination
21%
13%
13%
6%
10%
25%
1.48
30%
16%
Verglas
8%
8%
10%
8%
4%
0%
1.33
29%
5%
 
Not to many surprises here as Captain Rio is well known for producing horses which love soft ground. Hawk Wing is an interesting one. He made his name by winning the Lockinge by 11 Lengths in testing ground, so it perhaps should come as no surprise that his progeny have a distinct preference for cut in the ground.
 
Polytrack Sires
Best
 
Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Dubawi
56%
12%
13%
14%
10%
20%
1.00
37%
23%
Exceed and Excel
13%
4%
7%
13%
12%
24%
2.01
20%
18%
Red Ransom
0%
8%
10%
12%
11%
16%
1.55
14%
17%
Haafhd
0%
3%
16%
11%
10%
10%
1.14
16%
17%
Dalakhani
12%
18%
18%
18%
28%
25%
1.36
25%
16%
 
Worst
 
Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Wolfhound
5%
2%
3%
7%
6%
8%
2.22
9%
4%
Verglas
8%
8%
10%
8%
4%
0%
1.33
29%
5%
Captain Rio
13%
14%
8%
4%
5%
10%
2.27
17%
5%
Barathea
7%
9%
11%
9%
10%
10%
1.03
13%
7%
Diktat
9%
9%
8%
8%
6%
10%
1.22
14%
7%
Hawk Wing
6%
14%
8%
3%
6%
7%
2.01
14%
7%
Observatory
7%
11%
7%
12%
10%
5%
1.19
0%
7%
 
Interestingly a lot of the worst performing sires on Polytrack also appear in the list of horses whose progeny prefer soft ground. It may be a generalisation but it there does appear some truth in the statement that Polytrack equates to fast turf and Fibresand equates to soft turf.
 
Fibresand Sires
Best
 
Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Dubawi
56%
12%
13%
14%
10%
20%
1.00
37%
23%
War Chant
33%
9%
7%
15%
16%
8%
1.50
33%
13%
Dynaformer
4%
9%
18%
15%
19%
0%
1.30
31%
13%
Dubai Destination
21%
13%
13%
6%
10%
25%
1.48
30%
16%
Street Cry
0%
3%
9%
7%
13%
11%
1.96
27%
9%
 
Worst
 
Name
Heavy
Soft
G/S
Good
G/F
Firm
Going Ratio
Fibresand
Polytrack
Lomitas
7%
8%
8%
10%
14%
28%
1.74
0%
10%
Observatory
7%
11%
7%
12%
10%
5%
1.19
0%
7%
Sinndar
9%
6%
11%
9%
14%
32%
1.57
0%
8%
Zamindar
9%
10%
10%
10%
7%
15%
1.11
2%
9%
Danehill Dancer
17%
13%
11%
11%
11%
17%
1.14
5%
11%
 
Not surprisingly the top sires on Fibresand are dirt bred mostly US horses.
 

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